Managing The Dragon

As discussed in our recent recap of the Global Auto Forum 2010, one of the consensus views expressed at the GAF was that China will have substantial excess capacity in autos by 2015, and the resulting pressure to export vehicles may lead to significant trade tensions with countries that have large automotive industries (read the [...]

It’s now official: the Hummer deal has been scuttled. The conventional wisdom from the very beginning has been that the Chinese government would never approve the sale of Hummer by General Motors to Sichuan Tengzhong Heavy Industrial Machinery Co. because it runs counter to current Chinese auto policy which is promoting smaller, more fuel efficient [...]

I don’t mean to diminish the milestone that China’s auto industry reached last year by surpassing the United States in vehicle sales, but it was a bit like winning a tennis match by default—the American auto industry never showed up. After chalking up vehicle sales of between 15 million and 17 million annually for much [...]

It’s hard to believe, but at this time last year, no one knew where the world was headed. Trillions of dollars of wealth had been wiped out by the global financial crisis that began in September 2008; once powerful banks, investment banks and insurance companies the world over had been reduced to financial cripples; General [...]

Events continue to unfold in China’s rapidly changing automotive industry. The Financial Times summarized the most important of the recent developments: Beijing Automotive Industry Corp. wheeling its shopping cart around the world in search of distressed car assets like Sweden’s SAAB; Geely negotiating to acquire Volvo; and last but not least, General Motors selling majority [...]

Last week was particularly newsworthy in China, with an important milestone being reached and the release of positive economic data. The production of the 10 millionth vehicle by China’s auto industry this year represents a key milestone in the country’s development. Many government and industry officials gathered in Changchun, home to First Auto Works, to [...]

It’s only been six months, but it seems like ages since 2008 finally gave way to 2009. Though uncertainty will always be part and parcel of economics and finance, it’s hard to remember a time when there was less clarity in global economics. By January, trillions of dollars of wealth had been wiped out by [...]

Ever since the initial announcement that a little-known, special purpose vehicle maker in Sichuan Province had agreed to buy Hummer from bankrupt General Motors, news regarding the proposed deal has been scarce. The early reaction was that it was a deal that the Chinese government might very well block. After all, it runs counter to [...]

When I was starting up in China, many experts cautioned me on what I would encounter. “It’s not a free market and there’s no rule of law, they told me. “The government controls the courts, the companies and the banks. Central planners in Beijing, not the marketplace, decide what goods to produce and which companies [...]

When we look back 20 years from now, the year 2009 is likely to be viewed as the year in which the baton of leadership in the global auto industry passed from the United States to China. For the last 100 years, the American car market and American carmakers set the pace in the global [...]