Managing The Dragon

When I first came to China in 1992, the official exchange rate for the renminbi against the US dollar was fixed at 5.5 to one, and foreigners could only use Foreign Exchange Certificates–FEC in the vernacular of the day–for their purchases in the country. High inflation in 1993 and 1994, however, caused black market rates [...]

My role at Institutional Investor’s China Investment Management Summit in Beijing last week was to provide an historical and global perspective to the panel discussion. Here is what I said. I began my remarks by observing that one of China’s biggest problems today is its lack of developed capital markets. At the same time, I [...]

Last month, I suggested that because equipment such as excavators and wheel loaders are used in infrastructure projects, China’s construction machinery industry might be used to monitor the progress of China’s stimulus program. In China’s Construction Machinery Industry:A Benchmark For the Stimulus Program (Part I), I provided a brief industry overview and discussed some of [...]

China’s construction machinery industry is an interesting one to study in some detail because it illustrates many of the trends in China that we have highlighted at various times on MTD and that I identified in my book, Managing the Dragon. Construction machinery is yet one more industry where China is leading the world in [...]

As an unprecedented 1,500 foreign and domestic automakers and parts suppliers gather in Shanghai for China’s annual auto expo, China stands out as the only bright spot in an otherwise gloomy global auto industry. China’s auto sales hit a monthly record of 1.11 million vehicles in March, exceeding U.S. sales for the third month in [...]

Apologies to MTD readers for my silence over the past week. I’m in the U.S. now until April 21, following up on the many positive responses we have received to the formation of JFP Holdings, and there has simply been no time to write. What I’m finding, though, is that interest in China is as [...]

When the economic history of China is written, it will show that, to date, there have been three major inflection points in the country’s economic development — events that have triggered major changes in the direction of the country. First, of course, was the opening of China to the outside world under Deng Xiaoping in [...]

“Trees don’t grow to the sky,” a wise man once told me. After increasing at rates ranging from 20 percent to 50 percent per annum since China joined the World Trade Organization in December, 2001, vehicle sales in China fell victim to a slowing China economy, higher fuel costs, and a drastic falloff in demand [...]

As expected, China announced the much-awaited reforms to its fuel pricing policies.  Under the new system, “You pay as you fill up the tank.”  As China Daily put it, “the more you drive, the more it costs you — and the planet. This is a simple market rule but it has taken nearly two decades for [...]

It’s pretty safe to say that 2008 did not turn out like anyone expected. At the beginning of the year, there were already signs that the United States economy was heading for a recession, but no one expected the total financial and economic meltdown that ultimately occurred. In China, there was a big question mark [...]