The BRIC Countries: Brazil, Russia, India and China

BRIC CountriesChina’s growth has been so dramatic that those of us involved with China businesses tend to forget that there are other growth stories out there. Our focus on China is encouraged by the fact that other countries whose growth prospects have been touted in the past have never seemed to live up to expectations. For example, investors coined the term “BRIC” several years ago, to reference the growth economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China, but I haven’t heard the term used much until recently. China and India have certainly been in the news, but stories about the economies of Russia and Brazil have been less frequent.

This is now changing, however. With the rise in oil prices and its positive impact on Russia’s fortunes, and the continued growth of Brazil’s economy, more stories are now appearing about the economies of these two countries. In my travels, I also find investors and companies alike discussing their BRIC strategies, not just their strategies for China and India. New plants in Russia, growing trade with Brazil, and new private equity funds for investment in Russia are all topics that have been brought up in meetings in recent weeks.

Of the four countries, China and India have been mentioned in the same breath as the world’s two largest growth economies for some time now, even causing some to refer to them collectively as “Chindia.” China has become the world’s “workshop” and is making its presence felt in global markets, but so is India. India’s global position in software and its role as the world’s “call center” are well known. Like China, which is beginning to expand outside its borders, India is also becoming more aggressive on the acquisition front. Among the leading bidders for Land Rover and Jaguar are Tata Motors and Mahindra Group, two of India’s largest companies.

China and India seem to travel in their own circles, though, with few apparent points of contact between the two countries. The respective governments of the two countries do not seem to make a special point of their relationship with the other, and other than Bharat Forge’s joint venture with First Auto Works, I am not aware of any significant Indian presence in China’s booming auto industry. My own company, ASIMCO, has tried on several occasions to work with a number of Indian parts makers, but to no avail.

If anything, it is India that is coming to China. Most of its top software outsourcing firms now have significant operations here, as they seek a solution to rising wages and a shortage of qualified IT professionals. Cyrill Eltschinger, an outsourcing pioneer in China, has just written a fine book on this subject, Source Code China.

Economic cooperation between China and Brazil and China and Russia is another story. In the case of Brazil, business between the two countries is flourishing. Ever since the exchange of visits between Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Chinese President Hu Jintao in 2004, China’s influence can be seen everywhere in Latin America: oil, gas, railways, ports, and steel. In Sao Paulo, Chinese language classes are packed. Not only are students taught how to speak Mandarin, but they are also guided in cultural habits such as attending banquets and singing Chinese folk songs.

While not nearly as large as China’s, Brazil has a respectable auto industry and we are beginning to see the country as a promising export market. ASIMCO will most likely ship its first components to Volkswagen Brazil in 2008.

If the auto industry is any guide, economic ties between China and Russia are also growing rapidly. In 2006, Chery signed an agreement with a Russian company to assemble Chery cars in Russia. Chongqing Lifan Group announced in November that its Lifan 520 sedan produced by the assembly line which it established in Russia earlier this year has passed the European crash test, paving the way for its expansion in the Russian market. Lifan plans to sell 40,000 units annually in Russia by 2010. In August, Lifan also signed a three-year, $160 million contract with AutoMir, whereby the Russian company will purchase 30,000 sedans in knock-down form from Lifan.

Trade with Russia is also picking up in heavy-duty trucks. Over the past year or so, I have found key customers such as China Heavy Duty Truck and Yuchai Diesel frequently referring to their growing exports to Russia. With more trucks using our components being sold into the Russian market, we are now seeing that country develop into a good export market for our own products. We have already hosted several visits to our factories by Russian delegations intent on establishing a China supply chain, and have participated in trade shows in both Moscow and Beijing promoting automotive trade between the two countries. We were pleasantly surprised to find that one of the managers in our export department was able to dust off the Russian-language capability he acquired in university and communicate with our new friends from the north.

Each in their own way, the economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China are becoming the new centers of growth in the global economy. The World Bank estimates that global GDP amounted to approximately $48.2 trillion in 2006. The growth engines of the post World War II era—the United States, Japan and Germany—account for over 40 percent of that total and are still the #1, #2 and #3 largest economies in the world, respectively. But the changing of the guard is already beginning. With $2.7 trillion in GDP in 2006, China will come very close to surpassing Germany this year to take the #3 spot. I suspect that Brazil, Russia and India, each with GDPs at or only slightly below $1 trillion, will also be moving up quickly in the rankings.

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